I was on Five Live on Thursday talking about my latest research which shows up to 20 Welsh Assembly seats could change hands if the candidates involved spoke to their constituents through social networking.
It also got a mention in the fantastic South Wales Argus - click here for link - it also got a mention in the Western Mail.
I've listed the seats that could fall below. The methodology behind my madness is that there are more people on Facebook in these constituencies than the majority which the incumbent AM holds. In some cases, like Bridgend and Ceredigion, there is a whopping difference between the number of people on Facebook and the majority. This means that if one candidate was really serious about winning those constituencies, they could overturn the majority and be returned with a near 8000 vote majority if they persuaded all the people on Facebook in the constituency to vote for them.
As I explain in my Five Live piece - the problem is many politicians think that just chucking up a Facebook page or a Twitter feed means they've ticked the box when they come to social networking - and that is totally wrong.
Candidates need to have a proper two-way dialogue on social networks just as much as they do in real life. They must not be afraid to answer questions, face criticism and be more informative about where they stand. The question is, would they turn up to a constituency surgery and not listen to the constituent's concerns?
And whilst I don't think one single party in Wales is doing well, there are individual candidates that get this.
And, finally, I do agree with Matt Withers from the Western Mail that the message is the most important thing -after all, content is King and the parties do need to get their message over in a better way. However, the problem is that you can have the best message in the world, but if you don't get it out there, no one will hear it. The parties know how to get this message over through canvassing and hustings, but as more and more people choose to get their information from online and mobile services, politicians need to hone their skills in this area if they are to stand any chance of getting their message across effectively.
Anyway, rant over, the full press release and list of constituencies is below. Let me know what you think.
EMBARGO 0001 THURSDAY 28 APRIL 2011
HOW FACEBOOK WILL WIN THE WELSH ASSEMBLY ELECTION
Up to 20 Assembly seats could change hands if candidates engage with their constituents through the social network
Facebook could decide the winner of up to 20 Welsh Assembly seats in the forthcoming election.
According to research, the number of over 18s using the social network in those constituencies is more than the majority that needs to be overturned to win the seat.
By engaging with these Facebook users, candidates could gain enough votes to win a seat or incumbent AMs to hold on.
Ultra marginal seats such as the Vale of Glamorgan could be won or lost by speaking to voters on Facebook. But some supposedly safe seats including that of Carwyn Jones in Bridgend could be captured if rival parties start have meaningful conversations with voters who have chosen to use social networks as part of their everyday lives.
There are enough Facebook users in Cowbridge alone to secure a victory for the Conservatives in the Vale of Glamorgan. And Labour could re-capture Llanelli from Plaid if all the Facebook users in the town were persuaded to vote for them.
Bridgend -which has the fifth-highest usage of the social network in Wales - could have a new AM if any of the opposition parties speak to the near 14,000 voting adults in Bridgend on Facebook.
This research was undertaken by Dipping Bridge Communications, the Bridgend-based digital media consultancy which helps Welsh companies and organisations develop their online and mobile presences.
"There are over 700,000 over 18s in Wales on Facebook and 500 Welsh Language tweets are posted every week on Twitter. What this research proves is that the people of Wales are digitally engaged and they expect their politicians to follow suit." says Marc Webber, MD of Dipping Bridge and former Assistant Editor of The Sun online.
"Some candidates have made a strong effort on the social networking front, but others are poor. They think that just by creating a Facebook fan page, that's the job done. That's not how you engage people on Facebook - it's the equivalent of not attending a hustings because you think people will come and find your office and listen to you anyway.
"Social networking is now part of people's everyday life. Not talking to them in the spaces where they have chosen to communicate could be seen as punishing them and a slight against their democratic right."
STATS OF MARGINALS FOLLOW
More can be found on Marc's blog www.marcwebber.com.
Marc is available for further comment by contacting him in the following manner: - Email Marc@dippingbridge.com, call 07879 415473 or find him on Twitter @marcwebber
THE ‘FACEBOOK’ MARGINALS
The following seats could be easily won or lost if candidates engaged with constituents on Facebook:
Vale of Glamorgan -Actual Majority: 83
Over 18s on Facebook: Barry 12,960 Cowbridge 480, Llantwit Major 1,160
Carmarthen West and Pembs South -Actual Majority: 98
Over 18s on Facebook: Carmarthen West 2,200 Tenby 1,300 Saundersfoot 400
Vale of Clwyd -Actual Majority: 92
Over 18s on Facebook: Rhyl 4,740, Prestatyn 2,340
Delyn -Actual Majority: 510
Over 18s on Facebook: Mold 2,680 Flint 1,460
Newport East - Actual Majority : 875
Over 18s on Facebook: Whole of Newport 33,800
Gower - Actual Majority : 1192
Over 18s on Facebook: Whole of Swansea 24,666
Wrexham - Actual Majority : 1250
Over 18s on Facebook: Wrexham 17,300
Newport West - Actual Majority : 1401
Over 18s on Facebook: Whole of Newport 33,080
Clwyd West - Actual Majority : 1596
Over 18s on Facebook: Colwyn Bay 2,380
Swansea West - Actual Majority : 1511
Over 18s on Facebook: Whole of Swansea 24,666
Aberconwy - Actual Majority : 1693
Over 18s on Facebook: Llandudno 3,160
Neath - Actual Majority : 1944
Over 18s on Facebook: Neath 11,400
Caerphilly - Actual Majority : 1937
Over 18s on Facebook: 8,180
Bridgend - Actual Majority : 2566
Over 18s on Facebook: Bridgend 13,080
Cardiff South and Penarth - Actual Majority : 2754
Over 18s on Facebook: Penarth 3,800
Ceredigion - Actual Majority : 3995
Over 18s on Facebook: Aberystwyth 12,380
Llanelli - Actual Majority : 3884
Over 18s on Facebook: Llanelli 9,700
Pontypridd - Actual Majority : 3387
Over 18s on Facebook: Pontypridd 6,240
Preseli Pembs - Actual Majority : 3205
Over 18s on Facebook: Haverfordwest 3,940
Rhondda - Actual Majority : 6215
Over 18s on Facebook: Rhondda 6,340
ENDS
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